By Dr. Michael Green

This week has seen a raft of good news from Coro Energy, the Southeast Asian energy company with a natural gas and clean energy portfolio.

Italy update

This morning brought news of Q3 production from the Italian assets and mentioned the expected re-establishment of production at Bezzecca.

Production in Q3 2022 showed temporarily reduced levels from Sillaro as since 11th September 2022 sand clogging has been identified in a downhole valve. This is expected to be resolved by a coil tubing operation which is currently being prepared.

That’s not to mention Bezzecca which is expected to be back online in November 2022 at an expected rate of 15,000 scm/day. Looking at the above table, it can be seen that Silllaro averaged something like 15,300 scm/day over the last two quarters. So, there could now be a big uplift in the production numbers and revenue from Coro’s Italian gas portfolio.

At this point it is worth pointing out that further to the announcement of 24th August 2022, concerning the award of an option for the disposal of the Italian portfolio, Coro continues to retain full ownership and cash flows from the portfolio prior to the completion of the disposal.

The Bezzecca Gas Field is located within the Cascina Castello Licence, which lies 35km east of Milan and is potentially much bigger than Sillaro. An enlargement of the existing Cascina Castello Licence led to the Bezzecca Field being awarded production concession status in 2014. Gas production commenced in 2017 and this field had in the past been producing at a rate of 16,000scm/day (550Mcf/day).

Bezzecca had been shut down due to a ruptured pipe and the company has taken court action against the manufacturer of the pipe concerning design specifications. The court has released the site which means that Coro can look to get back into business there. This morning we learnt that following the successful procurement of long lead items and confirmation of UNMIG inspection dates, Coro is now well on the road to re-establish production at Bezzecca.

Southeast Asia Progress

Earlier on in the week, investors heard that the Philippines Wind Project was getting endorsed by the Department of Energy and that the bond holders are electing to receive interest in shares.

First up, the Philippines Department of Energy has endorsed Coro’s Area of Interest (AOI) for its first 100MW wind project. The company’s proposed AOI for its onshore Oslob Wind Power Project in Oslob, Cebu, covers a 4,617-hectare area, and so now Coro has been authorised to proceed with the filing of a wind energy service contract application.

It looks as though matters are really set to get moving here as this apparently is a critical gateway to initiating the formal permitting process and enabling the installation of a metalogical mast for the further collection of wind data. Coro reckons that it will be filing its application for a wind energy service contract (which basically reserves the AOI), to the Philippines Department of Energy before the end of November 2022.

Secondly, bond holders taking equity as interest. Well it is always a good sign when institutional funders are happy to take stock instead of cash – it is a really good sign that they see upside potential in the shares.

ASSESSMENT

Coro looks to be very well placed at the moment as it is seeking to help provide energy in South East Asia where there is booming electricity demand fuelled by GDP growth. Truth is that growth in electricity demand in SE Asia is amongst the fastest in the world due to the rapidly rising population, rising incomes, industrialisation and urbanisation. Coro see enviable opportunities to supply this market with gas and renewable energy as coal generation still dominates.

Currently, the Company is seeking to rapidly roll out 150MW of rooftop solar projects in Vietnam. Coro has an 85% interest and is funding the roll out of 150MW of roof top solar projects in Vietnam where a 3MW pilot project is now in operation. Looking to take precedence are two utility scale projects in the Philippines, a 100MW Solar project and the just mentioned 100MW Wind projects which are both 6 and 12 months away from Ready to Build status.

At the same time great strides look as though they are being made at the Duyung PSC which is well-positioned to supply gas to the Singapore market where premium prices are paid. Duyung PSC’s Mako Gas Field is one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in the West Natuna Basin, offshore Indonesia. It is a shallow single tank deposit that is technically low risk.

The development plan includes first gas in 2025, with a 120 MMscf/d production plateau and a gross recoverable 2C contingent resource of 413 Bcf gas total and 281 Bcf net entitlement attributable to the Duyung PSC JV partners (42 Bcf net to Coro) during the PSC life. It has to be pointed out that decent upside exists to increase the plateau rate to 150 MMscf/d, should reservoir deliverability be sufficient – this was reported in the CPR (26 August 2022) and specified in the PoD revision.

We updated coverage on Coro Energy earlier on this month with a Conviction Buy stance and a target price of 3.23p, when the shares were trading at 0.315p. Currently the stock trades at 0.3025p and we are more than happy to reiterate our stance.

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